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Hottest U.S. Senate races
Going into the November election, Democrats are well positioned to maintain control of the Senate. Democrats already control 40 of the Senate seats that are not up for election this year and they have the advantage of Vice President Joe Biden's tie-breaking vote. Thus, Democrats will only need to win 10 races in 2010 to retain control. For Republicans, taking control of the Senate would require not only retaining every one of their current 41 seats but also winning 10 other seats currently held by Democrats. Republicans have 18 seats up for election this fall while Democrats have 19. Analysts predict Republicans will pick up as many as eight seats but say it's unlikely the party will sweep enough races to snag control of the Senate.
Click the highlighted states for details on the races to watch.
Sen. Blanche Lincoln is counted among the most endangered Democrats this fall. She barely survived the May primary but mounted a comeback in the resulting June run-off election. Republicans have pinned their hopes on nominee U.S. Rep. John Boozman, who has maintained a wide lead over Lincoln in the polls. If Boozman emerges victorious, it will mark the first time a Republican has held the seat in more than a century.
A few months ago it might have seemed impossible that a Republican would gain enough steam in blue-blooded California to unseat Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. But former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina has emerged as a formidable Republican opponent in an election year that will not be kind to Democrats. Recent polls, however, now show Boxer leading Fiorina.
When Ken Salazar left office to become President Obama's Interior secretary, Gov. Bill Ritter tapped Democrat Michael Bennet to fill Salazar's vacant Senate seat. Bennet, who previously had never held an elective office, weathered a tough primary challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, and will face Republican Tea Party darling Ken Buck. Colorado's swing state status leaves this race locked in the toss-up category, but Bennet will likely seize upon Buck's campaign gaffes, which included telling a voter to choose him over his primary opponent Jane Norton "because I do not wear high heels."
Prior to September's primary, polls had indicated that moderate Republican Rep. Mike Castle was well positioned to defeat Democratic nominee Chris Coons, a little-known local official, in the race for Vice President Biden's old Senate seat (currently held by appointee Ted Kaufman). But Tea Party favorite Christine O'Donnell's surprise primary win has now cast doubt on whether the GOP will be able to win the seat in a heavily Democratic state.
The stage is set for a three-way race for Mel Martinez's former seat (currently held by appointee George LeMieux) after Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio surged in popularity and virtually pushed Gov. Charlie Crist out of the GOP and into a third party. Rubio has the backing of Florida's popular former Gov. Jeb Bush, but moderate Crist will likely gain support from a segment of Democratic voters who aren't committed to their party's candidate: four-term U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.
After his controversial appointment via embattled former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Sen. Ronald Burris has opted to pass on a second term. His exit leaves an open race for President Obama's former seat, but neither party has a clear advantage after both candidates' campaigns suffered setbacks. Republican moderate Mark Kirk, a fifth-term U.S. congressman from the Chicago suburbs, got caught in a resume-enhancing ploy while Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has had to deal with negative press after federal regulators seized his family's bank last April.
Despite his ties to the D.C. Madam escort service scandal and other recent controversies, poll numbers indicate that Republican Sen. David Vitter remains on course to win reelection this fall. He easily won the Aug. 28 primary setting the stage for a match-up with U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon, a pro-life, pro-gun Blue Dog Democrat taking advantage of Vitter's woes by campaigning as a "family man."
Republican Sen. Christopher Bond's retirement opened the door to a possible Democratic takeover of this seat. But the good news for Republicans is that while Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan, Missouri's secretary of state and daughter of former Gov. Mel Carnahan, had the initial advantage, U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt has picked up steam and appears on course to keep this seat in Republican hands.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in the 2010 election cycle, but don't count him out just yet. In 1998 he slid to victory by only a few hundred votes and recent polls suggest his campaign is on an upswing. But little-known Republican Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle has mounted a rousing campaign against Reid. She told the Christian Broadcasting Network that she views her decision to run against Reid as "a calling."
Despite New Hampshire's blue streak, retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's seat will likely stay in Republican hands. The GOP breathed a sigh of relief when popular former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte squeaked out a primary win over Tea Party favorite Ovide Lamontagne. Recent polls show Democratic U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes trailing Ayotte.
Republican Sen. Richard Burr's prospects of hanging onto his seat for a second term improved immensely after state Secretary of State Elaine Marshall defeated Cal Cunningham in the Democratic primary. With the more conservative Cunningham out of the race, Republicans believe Burr has a chance of becoming the seat's first incumbent since 1968 to win reelection.
Democrats have honed in on this swing-state race where they have a fighting chance at picking up the seat left open by retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich. But the latest polls reveal that the race has tipped in favor of Republican Rob Portman, a former congressman who served as President George W. Bush's Office of Management and Budget director. He is running against Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher.
Democratic voters booted party-switcher Sen. Arlen Specter during the spring primary and picked former three-star admiral and U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak to run against the GOP's Pat Toomey, a former congressman who once headed the free-market advocacy group Club for Growth. Toomey has consistently polled slightly ahead of Sestak, but in the blue-leaning Keystone State, victory over Sestak won't come as easily as it would have against Specter.
Interactive map by Blue Ridge Solutions
Election data compiled by Kristin Chapman
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