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Hottest U.S. House of Representatives races
As the country prepares for midterm elections this fall, analysts are already speculating how many seats the GOP is likely to pick up in a year of Democratic discontent. Going into the election cycle, Republicans are better positioned than Democrats: The list of endangered Republican seats is fairly short compared to the dozens of competitive Democratic seats. As of this past week, predictions are that Republicans will pick up 55 or more seats in the House. To recapture a House majority, the GOP needs to gain 40 seats-which is the number of seats the party needed in 1994 when it last captured the House majority.
Click the highlighted states for details on the races to watch.
45 – Democrats have made Republican Mary Bono Mack a major target in a district with shifting demographics. Her challenger, Democrat Steve Pougnet, is Palm Springs' openly gay mayor. If he unseats Bono Mack, he would become the first openly gay member of the U.S. House who is married with children.
08 – Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson has taken heat in recent months for controversial comments and for spending $73,000 in tax dollars to mail constituents a DVD featuring highlights from his first term. In a Republican-leaning district, Grayson will face a tough challenge from the Republican contender, former state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster.
03 – Leading Blue Dog Dennis Moore is retiring in a district that will be a tough challenge for Democrats to defend-President Obama narrowly won the district in 2008, but President Bush swept it in both the 2000 and 2004 races. The incumbent's wife, Stephene Moore, won the Democratic primary setting the stage for a match-up against the GOP's state Rep. Kevin Yoder, an adept fundraiser and a candidate in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program.
02 – Republican Joseph Cao's 2008 rise to power resulted from voter outrage directed toward the ethically challenged Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson. With Jefferson now gone and state Rep. Cedric Richmond running on the Democratic ticket, it would seem Cao has little chance of hanging onto his seat in this predominately minority New Orleans district. But Cao may benefit from the increased national attention he received as he responded to the Gulf oil spill.
03 – Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon is running for Senate, making this a vulnerable open seat in a district that only gave Obama 37 percent of the vote. Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty has little active support from elected officials or grassroots campaigning, which means Democrats haven't much hope of keeping this seat blue. He faces Tea Party favorite Jeff Landry, who defeated former state House Speaker Hunt Downer in the Oct. 2 Republican runoff election.
04 – Analysts will closely watch races where old party stalwarts like Ike Skelton are facing tougher reelection campaigns. As a moderate Democrat, Skelton has represented this Republican-leaning district for 33 years, but now he's facing a competitive challenge from former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who touts a strong conservative record.
01 – Blue Dog Democrat Travis Childers is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent House Democrats this election cycle. But in a conservative district that is regularly considered a toss-up, the freshman lawmaker is not a lost cause yet. He will face Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee.
02 – In 2008, Democrat Harry Teague swept to victory on a wave of Obama fever when Republican incumbent Steve Pearce unsuccessfully ran for the Senate. Now with a political climate favoring Republicans, Pearce is hoping to win back his old seat. That might not be so hard: Teague voted in favor of the cap-and-trade energy bill even though his district is filled with oil and gas companies.
23 – Last year Democrat Bill Owens swept to victory on the coattails of a Tea Party rebellion against moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava. As the first Democrat to represent the district in a century, his win might have been a fluke, but Republicans may not be able to recover the seat in a district that is increasingly moderate and starting to lean Democratic. Republican political newcomer Matt Doheny presents a worthy challenge especially now that Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who lost to Owens last year, dropped out of the race in early October—although his name will still appear on the ballot.
07 – Democrat Joe Sestak's decision to run for the U.S. Senate has handed Republicans a chance at reclaiming this historically Republican district. Although the suburban Philadelphia region has tilted blue in recent years, Democrats know that may mean little in an election year that favors Republicans. Former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan is the GOP's pick to run against Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz. The emergence of third-party candidate Jim Schneller-who is on the ballot thanks to the work of local Democratic leaders-may be a spoiler in an already close race.
17 – Nine-term Blue Dog Democrat Tim Holden is facing his first truly competitive race since 2002. As the incumbent, Holden enters the race with the advantage, further assisted by a war chest that has far out-paced his Republican challenger, state Sen. Dave Argall.
05 – Powerful House Democrat John Spratt has represented his red-leaning South Carolina district for 14 terms. While the entrenched congressman has weathered all kinds of political environments in the past, this year he is dealing with plummeting approval ratings and is emerging as one of the Democratic Party's vulnerable incumbents. Republican state Sen. Mick Mulvaney has closed the gap in polls, setting the stage for a close race.
08 – Leading Blue Dog Democrat John Tanner is retiring, giving Republicans a golden chance at possibly picking up a seat in a region that has been rapidly shifting in Republicans' favor. But conservative Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron presents a real challenge to Republican Stephen Fincher.
11 – Ten-term Democrat Chet Edwards represents the state's most Republican congressional district currently held by a Democrat. He's been a GOP target for years, but he's also a well-liked moderate who voted no on the healthcare reform bill and has the backing of the National Rifle Association. But Republicans think this might be the year the seat changes hands and their bets are on businessman Bill Flores.
05 – In 2008, Democrat Tom Perriello beat six-term Republican incumbent Virgil Goode by a mere 727 votes, making it the closest House race in the country that year. Since then, Perriello has voted for healthcare reform, the stimulus package, and the cap-and-trade energy bill in a conservative-leaning district that went for John McCain. GOP nominee Robert Hurt has led Perriello in the polls, but the emergence of third-party candidate and Tea Partier Jeff Clark, whom Hurt defeated during the primary, has complicated Hurt's campaign.
Interactive map by Blue Ridge Solutions
Election data compiled by Kristin Chapman
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