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Hottest governor races
This fall, 37 states will have a governor's race on the ballot. Republicans will defend 19 of the seats while Democrats are defending the other 18. Historically, the president's party loses seats during midterm elections and analysts are predicting that Republicans will pick up at least three governor seats and perhaps as many as 10. The outcome of these gubernatorial races is particularly important as the states prepare for next year's congressional redistricting, a once-a-decade task that governors frequently oversee.
Click the highlighted states for details on the races to watch.
Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, the former secretary of state who succeeded Gov. Janet Napolitano when she left to become President Obama's secretary of Homeland Security, may be the political comeback story of this election. Earlier this year her approval ratings were dismal and polls showed her trailing her Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. But since signing SB1070, the state's controversial immigration law, she has emerged as a national figure and her approval ratings have skyrocketed. Recent polls indicate Arizona voters will likely hand her a re-election victory.
Two-term Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's lackluster tenure should have paved the way for an easy Democratic win in 2010. But former eBay CEO Meg Whitman's Republican primary win has shaken this race up. The billionaire businesswoman, who has already funneled more than $140 million from her personal coffers into her campaign, is running against the quirky, underfunded state Attorney General Jerry Brown, who was California's governor from 1975 to 1983.
Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter's surprise decision not to seek reelection has handed Republicans at least a fighting chance at reclaiming the top seat in a traditionally red state. Although former U.S. Rep. Scott McInnis had appeared poised to capture the Republican Party's nomination, McInnis' admission to plagiarism tarnished his image and cleared the way for Tea Party favorite Dan Maes. Former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo's decision to enter the race as a third-party candidate has created a headache for Maes but created a prime opportunity for Democratic Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.
With her high approval ratings and centrist approach, Republican Gov. Jodi Rell was widely expected to capture a third term this fall, but her decision to retire has left the GOP scrambling in a state that leans Democratic. Republican Tom Foley, a former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, will face a tough fight against Democratic challenger and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy.
It may seem like a long shot in this Democratic-leaning state, but Republicans think they might have a chance of winning the governor's seat in a state that is still smarting from Rod Blagojevich's corrupt reign. But victory won't come easily for conservative Republican state Sen. Bill Brady as he campaigns against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, the former Blagojevich deputy who succeeded the disgraced former governor in 2009.
While Iowa voters typically give their governors at least two terms, Democratic Gov. Chet Culver's reelection is uncertain after he declined to throw support behind a state amendment that would have reversed the Iowa Supreme Court's decision to legalize gay marriage. Culver's lack of action remains fresh in the minds of Iowa's conservative base, which will likely rally around GOP nominee and former Gov. Terry Branstad (1983-1999), making this a golden pick-up opportunity for Republicans.
Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is stepping down, leaving Republicans on the defensive as they beat back Democrats' efforts to seize the seat. Conservative, charismatic Republican state legislator Tom Emmer (who has Sarah Palin's stamp of approval) will face Democrat and former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton. Third-party candidate Tom Horner's presence on the ballot could tip the final outcome, leaving this race in the toss-up category.
GOP leaders likely gave a sigh of relief after voters booted unpopular incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons in the primary. Gibbons' messy, public divorce led Republican voters to seek new leadership in judge Brian Sandoval, Nevada's first Hispanic to serve on the federal bench. Sandoval maintains a large lead over Democratic opponent Rory Reid, the son of embattled U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Although President Obama won Ohio with 51.4 percent of the vote in 2008, 49 percent of voters in this purple bellwether state now disapprove of his job performance. This combined with a sour economy has left incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland on shaky ground. But Strickland has been running an aggressive campaign against GOP nominee John Kasich, the former state congressman with ties to the bankrupt Lehman Brothers.
Term-limited Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell's departure leaves an open race in this bellwether state where traditionally the parties have alternated the governorship every eight years. Recent polls show Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett with a lead over his Democratic opponent, Allegheny County chief executive Dan Onorato.
Interactive map by Blue Ridge Solutions
Election data compiled by Kristin Chapman
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