Iraq and roll

CASE AGAINST SADDAM | Kurdish opponents say if "regime change" is the U.S. goal, anti-Saddam forces can do the job with Iraqi army deserters; but the U.S. needs to give them a good reason to desert | Mindy Belz

In the streets of Iraq, ask how long it will take to topple Saddam and you will get the same answer, whether you ask the fruit vendor in his apron or the mayor in shirtsleeves and tie. Two weeks, they say, and Saddam will be finished.

In America, media and foreign policy elites have no such confidence. And it is right to measure twice and cut once on Iraq. In the current debate frenzy, however, speculation tends to call more loudly than known facts.

What's known about Saddam's military strength is that it is roughly 65-75 percent of Gulf War levels. Even in decline, it remains the most powerful army in the Gulf. Compared to U.S. force levels and technical prowess acquired post-Gulf, it's a contest the United States should win with one fist tied behind its back.