The agony of victory

Analysis | Tony Blair wins his third election but loses 4 million votes | Tim Montgomerie

Tony Blair, reelected Britain’s prime minister earlier this month, is the third of the pivotal “war on terror” leaders to be returned to office, after Australia’s John Howard last October and George W. Bush. This is all said to be proof that the Anglosphere’s alliance against terror is strong. Right? Wrong.

Mr. Blair won reelection but lost two-thirds of his parliamentary majority and received just 36 percent of the popular vote. He won because the remainder of voters were split between two main opposition parties and a multitude of fringe parties. The last time that a prime minister received such a small share of the popular vote, Queen Victoria sat on the throne.

The Iraq war was an important factor in Mr. Blair’s reduced popularity. His Labor Party won 13.5 million votes in 1997. But on May 5, 4 million of those voters deserted him. The war was only the second most unpopular factor in Britain’s election: George W. Bush is even more disliked.