Whose regime will fall first: Saddam Hussein's or Tony Blair's? The British prime minister's vocal support for President Bush and the U.S. showdown with Saddam Hussein surprised and impressed many U.S. conservatives who saw Mr. Blair as a soul mate of Bill Clinton since he rose to power in London in 1997. But now Mr. Blair is in serious political trouble, and the White House is worried.

A stunning 80 percent of Britons oppose military action to disarm Iraq. Only 31 percent approve of Blair's job performance; 61 percent disapprove, up sharply in recent weeks. And almost half (45 percent) say President Bush is a greater threat to world peace than Saddam Hussein. True, Mr. Blair's Labor Party controls 411 of 659 seats in the British parliament, and toppling him would require 330 votes. A month ago, that would have seemed impossible. No longer.