By the numbers

Web Exclusive | House and Senate snapshots: the latest polling results, obtained exclusively by WORLD

Issue: "A warmer Chile," Nov. 9, 2002

Heading into the fall election's final weekend, WORLD political columnist Joel Rosenberg obtained GOP tracking poll results that show Republicans both gaining ground-and losing it. Here's a here is a rundown of where several key Senate and House races stand, with exclusive new numbers:


New internal GOP tracking polls --

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Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson: 44 percent

Democrat Mark Pryor: 44 percent

Comment: Republican operatives are most worried about this race.


New internal GOP tracking polls --

Democrat Sen. Max Cleland: 44 percent

GOP challenger Saxby Chambliss: 41 percent

Comment: Perhaps best shot at a GOP pickup. President Bush campaigns for Chambliss on Saturday


New internal GOP tracking polls --

Rep. John Sununu: 44 percent

Gov. Jeanne Shaheen: 42 percent

Comment: Three independent polls place Gov. Shaheen ahead by 3 to 4 points, and sources say the AFL-CIO is sending in 500 employees to help Democrats get out the vote.


GOP Sen. Wayne Allard: 45 percent

Democrat Tom Strickland: 41 percent

Comment: GOP operatives say a strong top of ticket -- Republican Gov. Bill Owens -- is helping boost Republican turnout; that might put Sen. Allard over the top.


New internal GOP tracking polls --

Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu: 44 percent

Comment: In Louisiana's system, candidates who cannot poll more than 50 percent face a runoff. If Sen. Landrieu cannot pick up 6 more percentage points, the Republicans will have one more shot at her.


Desperate Iowa GOP House incumbents -- and Senate candidate Greg Ganske -- need the "Bush Bounce," so the White House political operation is sending the president to Cedar Rapids on Monday.

The redistricted and thus newly embattled GOP Rep. Jim Leach is now in the 1st congressional district. He appears to be scratching and clawing his way to a lead, but House operatives remain worried. New internal GOP polling has Leach ahead of Democrat challenger John Norris 52 percent to 40 percent.

GOP Rep. Jim Nussle in the 2nd congressional district is also in a brutal battle. But Nussle now seems to be closing the sale with voters. He's up 54 percent to 46 percent.

GOP Rep. Tom Latham is now up 8 points, but still below 50 percent. New polling shows the race at 48 percent to 40 percent. Speaker Dennis Hastert is going in to stump for Latham on Sunday.

Christian conservative GOP state representative Steve King is in a strong position to pick up the newly created congressional seat in southeastern Iowa.

Democrat incumbent Rep. Boswell is suddenly facing an incredibly strong GOP challenge from Stan Thompson. Boswell had been fine for months, but is dropping steady and is now under 50 percent -- 48 percent to 42 percent.

Comment: Voter fraud in Iowa is becoming a major issue. Some districts have seen requests for 20,000 to 40,000 absentee ballots, almost none of which are coming from registered Republicans. "Abnormally high," says one GOP operative. "We're watching it real closely. These could be serious fraud cases developing."


Republican strategists fear a net loss of House seats in Georgia of one to four seats due to aggressive redistricting by the Democratic governor and legislature.

But, the newly created 12th congressional district could be a pickup for the GOP. Republican Max Burns has pulled slightly ahead of Democrat Champ Walker, 52 percent to 48 percent.

Also, in the redrawn 11th congressional district, Republican state senator Phil Gingry is finally gaining steam. Latest poll puts him down 3 points -- 46 percent to 43 percent. House Speaker Dennis Hastert heads there to campaign with Gingry on Friday.


GOP operatives believe they now have a shot at defeating incumbent Democrat Rep. Dennis Moore in Kansas's 3rd congressional district. Republican Adam Taff, a former Naval aviator -- now a pilot for United Airlines -- is surging in the past two weeks and Washington is air-lifting extra resources.

Moore: 47 percent

Taff: 44 percent

Joel C. Rosenberg
Joel C. Rosenberg


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